prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 139 Coastal Carolina 56 39.3, 230 Charleston Southern 28 7.5
92% 107 Wofford 19 39.5, 226 Virginia Military 18 11.4
92% 84 Hampton 58 63.1, 237 Savannah State 7 18.6
92% 75 Texas - El Paso 57 40.7, 200 Southern Methodist 27 12.5
92% 49 Furman 51 59.4, 228 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 15.6
92% 38 Fresno State 54 46.0, 171 Nevada - Reno 17 16.1
92% 20 Boise State 55 52.2, 127 Louisiana Tech 14 22.1
92% 11 Louisiana State 27 37.9, 106 Mississippi 24 9.9
92% 9 Louisville 65 45.0, 132 Houston 27 17.3
92% 3 California 41 38.6, 63 Stanford 6 10.8
92% 1 Oklahoma 35 58.3, 150 Baylor 0 11.1
91% 85 Marshall 31 42.7, 205 Western Michigan 21 16.4
91% 82 Jacksonville State 47 44.7, 193 Southeast Missouri Sta 9 19.7
91% 73 Memphis 38 51.5, 217 East Carolina 35 24.0
91% 66 James Madison 31 36.1, 196 Towson 17 11.5
91% 25 Purdue 63 38.7, 118 Indiana 24 13.3
91% 5 Utah 52 46.1, 92 Brigham Young 21 18.9
90% 88 Connecticut 29 40.4, 201 Buffalo 0 14.6
90% 29 Pennsylvania 20 30.7, 151 Cornell 14 7.7
89% 170 Alabama A&M 42 41.1, 231 Prairie View 6 16.4
89% 77 Northern Illinois 34 52.0, 210 Eastern Michigan 16 27.7
89% 61 Washington State 28 37.6, 161 Washington 25 15.0
88% 60 Western Kentucky 35 37.8, 179 Florida International 14 16.7
88% 31 Boston College 34 35.4, 142 Temple 17 15.0
88% 21 Arkansas 24 37.6, 123 Mississippi State 21 16.4
88% 10 Miami - Florida 52 37.2, 76 Wake Forest 7 14.9
87% 191 Morgan State 37 39.0, 238 Texas Southern 21 18.8
87% 128 South Carolina State 34 31.4, 219 North Carolina A&T 28 12.0
87% 89 Troy State 37 30.6, 164 Middle Tennessee State 17 11.7
87% 80 Princeton 17 26.9, 160 Dartmouth 10 8.5
87% 17 Harvard 35 35.4, 86 Yale 3 15.8
86% 54 William & Mary 38 36.1, 129 Richmond 14 17.5
85% 72 Northern Iowa 45 35.3, 175 Northern Arizona 21 18.0
83% 103 Alabama - Birmingham 20 36.7, 195 Army 14 20.3
83% 81 Montana 38 39.9, 152 Montana State 22 23.7
83% 71 Northeastern 42 37.1, 125 Rhode Island 14 21.0
83% 28 Tennessee 38 30.4, 112 Vanderbilt 33 15.2
81% 130 Bethune - Cookman 58 30.1, 215 Florida A&M 52 14.8
79% 162 Tulsa 34 43.5, 206 San Jose State 24 31.6
79% 140 California Poly 58 30.6, 216 Sacramento State 13 18.3
79% 90 Northwestern 28 31.0, 126 Illinois 21 18.5
79% 4 Auburn 21 25.3, 32 Alabama 13 13.3
78% 98 Brown 33 24.5, 135 Columbia 21 13.6
78% 53 Miami - Ohio 37 34.6, 124 Akron 27 23.0
78% 14 Virginia Tech 55 23.4, 37 Maryland 6 12.8
77% 19 Iowa 30 23.3, 44 Wisconsin 7 12.7
76% 172 Hawaii 52 39.7, 207 Idaho 21 29.9
76% 145 Sam Houston State 27 38.7, 177 Texas State - San Marc 9 28.6
75% 83 Cincinnati 45 30.6, 111 South Florida 23 21.2
75% 56 New Mexico 16 25.5, 91 Wyoming 9 16.5
71% 138 Eastern Kentucky 19 29.0, 194 Tennessee Tech 18 21.3
71% 121 San Diego State 21 30.4, 149 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 22.5
69% 116 Portland State 38 30.4, 137 California - Davis 21 23.3
69% 94 Navy 54 25.9, 109 Rutgers 21 19.1
69% 65 North Carolina 40 31.1, 110 Duke 17 24.3
68% 197 Liberty 27 23.4, 212 Elon 17 17.2
68% 67 Bucknell 30 31.9, 113 Duquesne 20 25.0
67% 42 Clemson 29 22.8, 51 South Carolina 7 17.2
64% 190 Central Michigan 41 29.5, 199 Ball State 40 24.6
64% 48 Oregon State 50 27.7, 50 Oregon 21 23.1
64% 33 New Hampshire 50 33.4, 69 Maine 36 28.6
63% 181 Southern Utah 45 29.5, 189 Idaho State 31 24.9
61% 180 Gardner - Webb 52 28.5, 182 Southeast Louisiana 34 25.2
61% 157 North Texas 31 31.4, 187 Arkansas State 7 28.6
60% 16 Virginia 30 19.5, 30 Georgia Tech 10 17.5
58% 183 Northeast Louisiana 13 24.3, 173 Louisiana - Lafayette 10 22.8
55% 185 The Citadel 17 18.8, 166 Western Carolina 0 18.0
55% 184 Alcorn State 16 23.7, 203 Jackson State 14 22.8
55% 158 Holy Cross 31 23.6, 174 Georgetown 28 22.8
52% 68 Massachusetts 40 26.7, 55 Hofstra 30 26.3
51% 167 Murray State 30 21.6, 186 Tennessee State 13 21.5
47% 104 Air Force 47 29.3, 74 Colorado State 17 30.0
41% 62 Lafayette 24 23.4, 39 Lehigh 10 25.3
40% 57 Delaware 41 21.3, 34 Villanova 35 23.6
39% 114 Northwestern State 37 24.4, 115 Stephen F. Austin 16 27.4
37% 131 Texas Christian 42 29.9, 105 Southern Mississippi 17 33.9
37% 79 Penn State 37 19.7, 41 Michigan State 13 23.5
37% 58 Kansas 31 20.1, 59 Missouri 14 24.0
36% 97 Colgate 40 21.2, 87 Fordham 28 26.0
35% 176 Utah State 34 21.5, 134 New Mexico State 25 26.5
34% 35 Ohio State 37 20.2, 12 Michigan 21 25.3
33% 204 South Dakota State 14 17.4, 188 Northern Colorado 7 23.1
29% 213 Eastern Illinois 28 28.4, 192 Samford 14 35.8
25% 18 Florida 20 19.3, 7 Florida State 13 28.3
24% 214 McNeese State 30 26.8, 147 Nicholls State 9 36.8
20% 96 Iowa State 37 17.8, 47 Kansas State 23 31.6
14% 223 Delaware State 32 10.3, 168 Howard 13 28.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.41 21 0.88 18 1.02 20 1.10 19 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 87 71 66.9 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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